Late stage breast cancer survival estimate is ‘rarely accurate’

Specialists warn that single number average survival estimates for advanced stage breast cancer are unhelpful and usually inaccurate. Instead, they advise doctors to provide several case-specific survival estimates to help people plan with realism and hope.

Breast cancer is the form of cancer that affects women the most often — about 2.1 million women worldwide receive a cancer diagnosis in one year, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Breast cancer is one of the most treatable forms of cancer, but when it metastasizes in its later stages, removing tumors becomes more difficult, which can have a significant effect on the survival rate.

Understandably, people with late stage breast cancer are interested in receiving survival rate estimates from their doctors so that they can make the most appropriate healthcare choices and plan accordingly.

“Every week in my clinic, I meet women of all ages with advanced breast cancer, and they frequently ask: ‘How long have I got?’ They have very practical concerns and questions that they want help with; for example, they might want to know whether they should cancel a planned holiday, whether they will be able to attend their daughter’s wedding, or whether they should stop working or sell their house,” notes Dr. Belinda Kiely, who is a cancer specialist at the University of Sydney in Australia.

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